The marketing campaign, which included a $500 gift card giveaway, was meant to show Buffalo's northern neighbors they were welcome, wanted and missed.

At first, it seemed like it might work, said Patrick Kaler, CEO of the local tourism organization Visit Buffalo Niagara. More than 1,000 people entered the giveaway. But by the end of July, it was clear the city's reliable summer wave of Canadian visitors would not arrive this year.

Buffalo’s struggle reflects a broader downturn in international tourism to the U.S. that travel analysts warn could persist well into the future. From northern border towns to major hot spots like Las Vegas and Los Angeles, popular travel destinations reported hosting fewer foreign visitors this summer.

Experts and some local officials attribute the trend that first emerged in February to President Donald Trump's return to the White House. They say his tariffs, immigration crackdown and repeated jabs about the U.S. acquiring Canada and Greenland alienated travelers from other parts of the world.

"To see the traffic drop off so significantly, especially because of rhetoric that can be changed, is so disheartening,” Kaler said.

Forecasts show US losing foreign travelers

The World Travel & Tourism Council projected ahead of Memorial Day that the U.S. would be the only country among the 184 it studied where foreign visitor spending would fall in 2025. The finding was “a clear indicator that the global appeal of the U.S. is slipping,” the global industry association said.

“The world’s biggest travel and tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction,” Julia Simpson, the council’s president and CEO, said. "While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”

Travel research firm Tourism Economics, meanwhile, predicted this month that the U.S. would see 8.2% fewer international arrivals in 2025, an improvement from its earlier forecast of a 9.4% decline but well below the numbers of foreign visitors to the country before the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The sentiment drag has proven to be severe,” the firm said, noting that airline bookings indicate “the sharp inbound travel slowdown” of May, June and July would likely persist in the months ahead.

Deborah Friedland, managing director at the financial services firm Eisner Advisory Group, said he U.S. travel industry faced multiple headwinds — rising travel costs, political uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Since returning to office, Trump has doubled down on some of the hard-line policies that defined his first term, reviving a travel ban targeting mainly African and Middle Eastern countries, tightening rules around visa approvals and ramping up mass immigration raids. At the same time, the push for tariffs on foreign goods that quickly became a defining feature of his second term gave some citizens elsewhere a sense they were unwanted.

“Perception is reality,” Friedland said.

International arrivals down from Western Europe, Asia and Africa

Organizers of an international swing dancing said an impression of America's hostility to foreigners led them to postpone the event, which had been scheduled to take place this month in the Harlem area of New York City.

About three months into Trump’s second term, international competitors began pulling out of the world finals of the International Lindy Hop Championships, saying they felt unwelcome, event co-producer Tena Morales said. About half of attendees each year come from outside the U.S., primarily from Canada and France, she said.

Contest organizers are considering whether to host the annual competition in another country until Trump's presidency ends, Morales said.

“The climate is still the same and what we're hearing is still the same, that (dancers) don't want to come here," she said.

The nation’s capital, where the Trump administration in recent weeks deployed National Guard members and took over management of Union Station, also has noticed an impact.

Local tourism officials have projected a 5.1% dip in international visitors for the year. Marketing organization Destination DC said last week it planned to “counter negative rhetoric" about the city with a campaign that would feature residents and highlight the “more personal side” of Washington.

U.S. government data confirms an overall drop-off in international arrivals during the first seven months of the year. The number of overseas visitors, a category that doesn't include travelers from Mexico or Canada, declined by more than 3 million, or 1.6%, compared to the same period a year earlier, according to preliminary figures from the National Travel and Tourism Office.

As a tourist generator, Western Europe was down 2.3%, with visitors from Denmark dropping by 19%, from Germany by 10%, and from France by 6.6%. A similar pattern surfaced in Asia, where the U.S. data showed double-digit decreases in arrivals from Hong Kong, Indonesia and the Philippines. Fewer residents of countries throughout Africa also had traveled to the U.S. as of July.

However, visitors from some countries, among them Argentina, Brazil, Italy and Japan, have arrived in greater numbers.

Filling a void left by Canadian tourists

Neither did all U.S. destinations report sluggish summers for tourism.

On eastern Wisconsin’s Door Peninsula, which straddles Lake Michigan and Green Bay, a steady stream of loyal Midwest visitors helped deliver a strong summer for local businesses, according to Jon Jarosh, a spokesperson for Destination Door County.

Many business owners reported a noticeable uptick in foot traffic after a quieter start to the season, Jarosh said, and sidewalks were bustling and restaurants were packed by midsummer.

Executives from the major U.S. airlines said last month that American passengers booking premium airfares helped fill their international flights and that demand for domestic flights was picking up after a weaker than expected showing in the first half of 2025.

The Federal Aviation Administration said it was gearing up for what is expected to be the busiest Labor Day weekend in 15 years. Bookings for U.S. airlines were up about 2% compared to 2024 for the long holiday weekend that started Thursday, aviation analytics firm Cirium said.

As the summer winds down, though, the absence of foreign visitors in Buffalo was still visible, according to Kaler, the head of Visit Buffalo Niagara.

Canada sent over 20.2 million visitors to the U.S. last year, more than any other country, U.S. government data showed. But this year, residents of Canada have been among the most reluctant to visit.

In a major U-turn, more U.S. residents drove into Canada in June and July than Canadians making the reverse trip, according to Canada’s national statistical agency. Statistics Canada said it was the first time that happened in nearly two decades with the exception of two months during the pandemic.

In July alone, the number of Canadian residents returning from the U.S. by car was down 37% from the year before, and return trips by plane fell 26%, the agency said.

As a result, Visit Buffalo Niagara shifted its marketing efforts this summer to cities like Boston, Philadelphia and Chicago. Amateur children’s sporting events also helped fill the void left by Canadian tourists.

“We will always welcome Canadians back when the time is right,” Kaler said. “I don’t want Canadians to feel like we see them as just dollar signs or a transaction at our cash registers. They mean more to us that that."